Mortgage Market News for the week ending June 6, 2008

Events This Week:

Employment Fell
Productivity Higher
Manufacturing Mixed
Construction Down

Events Next Week:

Mon 6/9
Pending Sales
Wed 6/11
Beige Book
Thurs 6/12
Retail Sales
Import Prices
Fri 6/13
CPI
Sentiment

Bernanke Stirs Up Inflation Fears

Usually the monthly Employment report is the main event of the week, but Fed Chief Bernanke stole the show. Following the theme of other Fed officials in recent weeks, Bernanke focused on inflation risks in multiple speeches, and his comments were unexpectedly direct. According to him, inflation expectations are a "significant concern." He explained that the decline in the value of the dollar and the increase in the cost of energy were adding to inflationary pressures. Inflation is negative for mortgage investors, and mortgage rates rose for the fourth straight week due to increased concern.

At the end of a volatile week, investors were closely watching Friday's important Employment report. The headline number came in right on target, with a loss of -49K jobs in May. The big surprise came from the change in the Unemployment Rate. Expected to rise slightly to 5.1% from 5.0% in April, it instead jumped to 5.5%, the highest level since October 2004. Economists attributed the spike to an unusually large influx of young adults entering the labor force to find summer jobs, so the reaction in the mortgage market was modest.


[ul][*]Also Notable: [*]In May, the Unemployment Rate showed the largest monthly increase since February 1986[*]The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both held rates steady[*]The Fed's Lacker suggested that the programs put in place to ease the credit crunch may encourage excessive risk taking[*]Oil prices declined as low as $122 per barrel, but then rose again to record levels near $135 per barrel[/ul]Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week:+0.09%
This week:+0.06%

Stocks (weekly):
Dow:12,353-304
NASDAQ:2,509-11

Week Ahead

An inflation report will be the most anticipated economic data next week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, will come out on Monday. The Fed's Beige Book will provide some insight into current economic conditions on Wednesday. Retail Sales is scheduled for Thursday. Consumers account for about 70% of economic activity, and this report is a major indicator of spending levels by consumers. Import Prices, the Trade Balance, and Consumer Sentiment will round out a full week.

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