My timing belt has rubbed a hole in the plastic thermostat water jacket. It is not running "true" on the cam gears. What would make this shift to the rear and cause this problem?

 

it jumped timing? one of the rollers/pullys has a bearing that is wearing down unevenly and is slanted a few degrees?

 

It didn't jump timing. I was lucky that it went they way it did becuse in due time it would have jumped timing. You are correct however! It is the tensioner pulley. It is out of alignment with everything else. I haven't pulled it off to see exactly what happened because I'm waiting on the timing tool. Thanks for your response.

 

The attached photos show the tensioner problem. If anyone has experienced this problem and knows why something like this would happen after 20K miles I'd like to hear from you.